Comments on: No Bubble 2.0 yet http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/ Turning Data into Knowledge Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:12:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: On Web Apps - Random musings of a Webapp mogul. http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-24530 On Web Apps - Random musings of a Webapp mogul. Wed, 16 May 2007 08:23:04 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-24530 <!--%kramer-pre%-->Analysis With the notable exceptions of Skype, YouTube, MySpace, Photobucket, etc — the bulk of Web 2.0 companies (that have managed to cash out) had an acquisition price of somewhere between $10-30M. This post by Tristan Louis does a great job of summing up the various Web 2.0 acquisitions. Some of the notable few: Google / Pyra Labs (rumored $20 million) Flickr (rumored $30M) del.icio.us (rumored $30M) Weblogs Inc. (rumored $25M)<!--%kramer-post%--> Analysis With the notable exceptions of Skype, YouTube, MySpace, Photobucket, etc — the bulk of Web 2.0 companies (that have managed to cash out) had an acquisition price of somewhere between $10-30M. This post by Tristan Louis does a great job of summing up the various Web 2.0 acquisitions. Some of the notable few: Google / Pyra Labs (rumored $20 million) Flickr (rumored $30M) del.icio.us (rumored $30M) Weblogs Inc. (rumored $25M)

]]> By: Of Interest http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-24568 Of Interest Thu, 10 May 2007 06:49:35 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-24568 <!--%kramer-pre%-->posted my first warning shot about signs of a new bubble coming. As is customary with TNL.net, this is probably early in the cycle but I am still worried that a bubble is heading our way and hope that this time, we will be able to manage it better. In October 2006, I set out to demonstrate how the numbers would show the rise of that bubble. Only one problem: they did not so I actually reported that, confusing people in the process as they thought that I had been anti-web 2.0 all along. Let me make this clear, I<!--%kramer-post%--> posted my first warning shot about signs of a new bubble coming. As is customary with TNL.net, this is probably early in the cycle but I am still worried that a bubble is heading our way and hope that this time, we will be able to manage it better. In October 2006, I set out to demonstrate how the numbers would show the rise of that bubble. Only one problem: they did not so I actually reported that, confusing people in the process as they thought that I had been anti-web 2.0 all along. Let me make this clear, I

]]> By: Le Darwinisme 2.0, où le web canibal http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-2915 Le Darwinisme 2.0, où le web canibal Thu, 25 Jan 2007 09:42:14 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-2915 [...] Une seconde sphère est constituée des nouvelles sociétés financées par le capital risque qui aujourd’hui cherchent plutôt un scenario de sortie par acquisition plutôt qu’une introduction en bourse. Les tours de financements moyens sont de quelques millions (rarement plus de 15) de dollars pour des valorisations comprises entre 3 et 20 millions de dollars. Par ailleurs les prix d’acquisitions de ces jeunes sociétés sont ne dépassent rarement les 50 millions de dollars (voir cette table des acquisitions). Dans les 12 prochains mois environ 700 millions de dollars vont être investis en capital risque dans l’internet. 700 millions, vous me direz c’est beaucoup, mais ce n’est rien en comparaison des 13 ou 14 milliards de dollars qui vont être investis dans le high tech en général (notamment les clean tech et le biotech). Le coût d’accès à la technologie étant désormais très bas il possible de créer un service générant des profits avec quelques centaines de milliers de dollars . Quel est le risque réel de voir un échec total sur ces investissements créer une bulle ? Impossible à savoir mais improbable de voir une bulle éclater. [...] […] Une seconde sphère est constituée des nouvelles sociétés financées par le capital risque qui aujourd’hui cherchent plutôt un scenario de sortie par acquisition plutôt qu’une introduction en bourse. Les tours de financements moyens sont de quelques millions (rarement plus de 15) de dollars pour des valorisations comprises entre 3 et 20 millions de dollars. Par ailleurs les prix d’acquisitions de ces jeunes sociétés sont ne dépassent rarement les 50 millions de dollars (voir cette table des acquisitions). Dans les 12 prochains mois environ 700 millions de dollars vont être investis en capital risque dans l’internet. 700 millions, vous me direz c’est beaucoup, mais ce n’est rien en comparaison des 13 ou 14 milliards de dollars qui vont être investis dans le high tech en général (notamment les clean tech et le biotech). Le coût d’accès à la technologie étant désormais très bas il possible de créer un service générant des profits avec quelques centaines de milliers de dollars . Quel est le risque réel de voir un échec total sur ces investissements créer une bulle ? Impossible à savoir mais improbable de voir une bulle éclater. […]

]]> By: The Great Bubble Debate | twopointouch: web 2.0, blogs and social media http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-1374 The Great Bubble Debate | twopointouch: web 2.0, blogs and social media Sun, 14 Jan 2007 17:14:03 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-1374 [...] Also note the following table from the TNL.net blog which shows that while there have been some enormous deals (MySpace, YouTube), the average Web 2.0 acquisition is somewhat more modest. [...] […] Also note the following table from the TNL.net blog which shows that while there have been some enormous deals (MySpace, YouTube), the average Web 2.0 acquisition is somewhat more modest. […]

]]> By: innonate » The Web 2.0 Valuation Project http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-669 innonate » The Web 2.0 Valuation Project Sun, 07 Jan 2007 18:03:11 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-669 [...] With that as a starting point, I‘ve come this far (click to check out the spreadsheet). As you can see, after scouring over press releases, a number of random articles, and the regular rumor mills, I was able to fill in blanks here and there. I chose measurements that were reported, as well as publicly available benchmarks such as a site’s Alexa Ranking. As I looked, I also looked to see if anyone else was doing what I was trying to do. I was surprised not to file a spreadsheet like it. [...] […] With that as a starting point, I‘ve come this far (click to check out the spreadsheet). As you can see, after scouring over press releases, a number of random articles, and the regular rumor mills, I was able to fill in blanks here and there. I chose measurements that were reported, as well as publicly available benchmarks such as a site’s Alexa Ranking. As I looked, I also looked to see if anyone else was doing what I was trying to do. I was surprised not to file a spreadsheet like it. […]

]]> By: ShareCool&#8217;s Blog &#187; Facebook，下一個被併購的網站？ http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-169 ShareCool&#8217;s Blog &#187; Facebook，下一個被併購的網站？ Tue, 14 Nov 2006 20:56:33 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-169 [...] 延伸閱讀：No Bubble 2.0 yet [...] […] 延伸閱讀：No Bubble 2.0 yet […]

]]> By: Nicole http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-166 Nicole Sun, 29 Oct 2006 13:30:18 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-166 Really good chart. It was just what i've been looking for. And yes, i haven't found any one like that. It will be nice, if there was another one but with acquisitions that happens in the first bubble. Thanks! Really good chart. It was just what i’ve been looking for. And yes, i haven’t found any one like that. It will be nice, if there was another one but with acquisitions that happens in the first bubble. Thanks!

]]> By: 기업 인수 금액 가이드 http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-165 기업 인수 금액 가이드 Thu, 19 Oct 2006 05:17:44 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-165 [...] 트리스탄 루이스(Tristan Louis)의 자료를 필립 렌스(Philipp Lenssen)이 추가하고, 그것을 다시 한국 기업을 추가한 가이드를 공개합니다. 단위는 미화로 통일했으며, 1불당 950원으로 계산하고 이하 반올림 했습니다. [...] […] 트리스탄 루이스(Tristan Louis)의 자료를 필립 렌스(Philipp Lenssen)이 추가하고, 그것을 다시 한국 기업을 추가한 가이드를 공개합니다. 단위는 미화로 통일했으며, 1불당 950원으로 계산하고 이하 반올림 했습니다. […]

]]> By: Henkie http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-164 Henkie Tue, 17 Oct 2006 14:52:31 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-164 nov 2004: eBay acquires Dutch trading site Marktplaats.nl for $290 million http://investor.ebay.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=148001 nov 2004: eBay acquires Dutch trading site Marktplaats.nl for $290 million

http://investor.ebay.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=148001

]]> By: CleverShark http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-163 CleverShark Tue, 17 Oct 2006 13:53:33 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-163 It's all a bit of a moot point. Google paid the $1.65 billion in stock; now I read somewhere that this (at the time) represented 1.4% of their market cap, but Google shares jumped a little over 2% on the news. So, technically, the purchase has already more than paid for itself when one looks at it from a shareholders' point of view. It’s all a bit of a moot point. Google paid the $1.65 billion in stock; now I read somewhere that this (at the time) represented 1.4% of their market cap, but Google shares jumped a little over 2% on the news.

So, technically, the purchase has already more than paid for itself when one looks at it from a shareholders’ point of view.

]]> By: Morpheus7 http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-162 Morpheus7 Mon, 16 Oct 2006 16:53:04 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-162 The bubble isn't with exits, but with what venture guys are paying in private transactions. This will be the real shakeout when many of these companies blow up or get sold for cents on the dollar. The bubble isn’t with exits, but with what venture guys are paying in private transactions. This will be the real shakeout when many of these companies blow up or get sold for cents on the dollar.

]]> By: » NejvÄ›tší Web 2.0 akvizice od roku 2003 | Web. REFLEKTOR http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-161 » NejvÄ›tší Web 2.0 akvizice od roku 2003 | Web. REFLEKTOR Mon, 16 Oct 2006 16:09:06 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-161 [...] [*] - neoficiální od(do)had Zdroj: TNL.net, Tristan Louis [...] […] [*] — neoficiální od(do)had Zdroj: TNL.net, Tristan Louis […]

]]> By: Was kostet Web 2.0? » q48 :: Online Marketing News & Trends http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-160 Was kostet Web 2.0? » q48 :: Online Marketing News & Trends Mon, 16 Oct 2006 08:40:09 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-160 [...] via Google Blogoscoped, Tristan Louis [...] […] via Google Blogoscoped, Tristan Louis […]

]]> By: Metrics 2.0 http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-159 Metrics 2.0 Sun, 15 Oct 2006 13:25:14 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-159 No Bubble 2.0 yet, but the measurements of bubble 2.0 is becoming sticky - <a href="http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/10/14/counting_web_users_is_awkwardly_difficult_traffic.html" rel="nofollow"> sticky 2.0</a> No Bubble 2.0 yet, but the measurements of bubble 2.0 is becoming sticky — sticky 2.0

]]> By: La lista de las últimas compras &laquo; |-Multitag-| (beta) http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-158 La lista de las últimas compras &laquo; |-Multitag-| (beta) Thu, 12 Oct 2006 13:03:01 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-158 [...] En relación con lo publicado por el NYT sobre una “nueva burbuja” encontré este post donde se listan con price los más importantes deals en el mercado de internet de los últimos tiempos. Por más que muchos digan que no, a mi me circunda un feeling a burbuja… [...] […] En relación con lo publicado por el NYT sobre una &#8220;nueva burbuja&#8221; encontré este post donde se listan con price los más importantes deals en el mercado de internet de los últimos tiempos. Por más que muchos digan que no, a mi me circunda un feeling a burbuja&#8230; […]

]]> By: Avi http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-157 Avi Thu, 12 Oct 2006 00:36:59 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-157 I think CNet bought Consumating.com last year also. I think CNet bought Consumating.com last year also.

]]> By: bn http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-156 bn Wed, 11 Oct 2006 19:44:30 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-156 eBay bought Rent.com for $415 million in Dec '04 eBay bought Rent.com for $415 million in Dec ’04

]]> By: Got a few bucks? Buy an internet company! « Joe Duck http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-155 Got a few bucks? Buy an internet company! « Joe Duck Wed, 11 Oct 2006 18:54:04 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-155 [...] Here’s a nice list of internet purchases over the past few years. I’m starting to come to grips with the fact that even if you create a great company the payout is not that spectacular unless it’s the one in a hundred deal like a YouTube, Skype, Broadcast.com, etc. As one of the VC’s down at Mashup Camp pointed out those are the exceptional exceptions to the normal rule of deals worth millions, not billions. Even in those deals only a handful of people make more than a few million. [...] […] Here&#8217;s a nice list of internet purchases over the past few years. I&#8217;m starting to come to grips with the fact that even if you create a great company the payout is not that spectacular unless it&#8217;s the one in a hundred deal like a YouTube, Skype, Broadcast.com, etc. As one of the VC&#8217;s down at Mashup Camp pointed out those are the exceptional exceptions to the normal rule of deals worth millions, not billions. Even in those deals only a handful of people make more than a few million. […]

]]> By: Tristan Louis http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-154 Tristan Louis Wed, 11 Oct 2006 13:28:08 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-154 Actually, most of the other deals listed (like Visio, shopping.com, or even the deals that Oracle has made in the last few years) would not count as Web 2.0 deals as they were traditionally established companies. Those could show the rise of a bubble in tech in general but they could also be part of the standard operating approach to deals in tech in general (if I were to start tracking deals outside the Web 2.0 space, I'd have to also track deals across all industries in order to understand the overall picture) For example, the takeover of ATT by SBC, using this type of measure, dwarfs all the Web 2.0 deals done in the last few years (and that's just one deal, off the top of my head). So I decided to focus on acquired companies that met the standard definition of Web 2.0 when I drew up the list. Actually, most of the other deals listed (like Visio, shopping.com, or even the deals that Oracle has made in the last few years) would not count as Web 2.0 deals as they were traditionally established companies. Those could show the rise of a bubble in tech in general but they could also be part of the standard operating approach to deals in tech in general (if I were to start tracking deals outside the Web 2.0 space, I&#39;d have to also track deals across all industries in order to understand the overall picture) For example, the takeover of ATT by SBC, using this type of measure, dwarfs all the Web 2.0 deals done in the last few years (and that&#39;s just one deal, off the top of my head). So I decided to focus on acquired companies that met the standard definition of Web 2.0 when I drew up the list.

]]> By: Keith http://www.tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/comment-page-1/#comment-151 Keith Wed, 11 Oct 2006 10:43:48 +0000 http://tnl.net/blog/2006/10/09/no-bubble-20-yet/#comment-151 So far, the <a href="http://www.neohide.com" rel="nofollow">two billion dollars</a> takeover are Skype and YouTube. One can imagine how much Google is earning from people around the world to have that much money to pay these companies! Wish my site is worth as much as a million too. So far, the two billion dollars takeover are Skype and YouTube. One can imagine how much Google is earning from people around the world to have that much money to pay these companies! Wish my site is worth as much as a million too.

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