TNL.net is designed for modern browsers but the content is still readable in older ones. If you want to ensure the best experience, please install a browser that was developed after 2009.

tnl.net

New York to displace Silicon Valley

There’s been a lot of dis­cus­sion in the past cou­ple of years about the resur­gence of New York City as a tech cen­ter (I actu­ally called the com­par­i­son to Sil­i­con Val­ley a silly one about a year ago). In the past cou­ple of years, how­ever, a lot of fac­tors seem to be point­ing to New York not only becom­ing an impor­tant force in the tech­nol­ogy space but also finally achiev­ing its poten­tial not as another tech cen­ter but more as its epi­cen­ter, dis­plac­ing Sil­i­con Val­ley after almost three generations.

NYC

The rise of New York to promi­nence is, first and fore­most, due to a series of happy acci­dents. While the tech­nol­ogy world was long dom­i­nated by hard­ware and algo­rithms, the cur­rent phase (often referred to as “the social web”) is all about people.

In order to full back those assump­tions, I’ve cre­ated five lenses, each with its own post:

  1. Mono­cul­tures have neg­a­tive impact. Poly­cul­tures take longer to cre­ate pow­er­ful organ­isms but inher­ently build ones that are more adaptable.
  2. Liv­ing in a city is inher­ently a social expe­ri­ence. Liv­ing in a car-driven soci­ety isn’t.
  3. Every­one poaches techies — the New York tech scene was born of those peo­ple that can’t be poached and found ways to attract like-minds.
  4. Don’t look at adver­sity as some­thing that can be over­come with brute force, deal with it as a nor­mal con­di­tion and you will find inno­v­a­tive workarounds.
  5. Busi­nesses are ulti­mately about money so to con­tinue fos­ter­ing suc­cess, val­ley startup might do well to act a lit­tle more like New York ones if they want to build sus­tain­able futures.

A his­tor­i­cal setting

The New York dot­com scene of the 1990s was vibrant but ulti­mately flawed. Its own hubris killed it (and I should know as I was one of those peo­ple) and along with it killed the chance of New York dis­plac­ing Sil­i­con Val­ley as the epi­cen­ter of the tech­nol­ogy world. A decade after its implo­sion, New York is being given a new chance to pick up the man­tle, along with some dis­tinct advan­tages this time around.

With many vet­er­ans still being part of the scene, it seems the lessons of the past have not been for­got­ten so the chal­lenge to Sil­i­con Valley’s supremacy will be sub­stan­tially stronger than it has been in the past. I hope this series will give both groups chances to think about the dif­fer­ent issues fac­ing their own envi­ron­ment and work on deal­ing with those.

At the end of the day, if both Sil­i­con Val­ley and New York were to emerge stronger than they are today, this con­flict could leave the US more pre­pared for the next set of chal­lenges that will push both coast to pull together and fight against the rise of cities in for­eign locale to try to take the lead­er­ship away from the USA. If you are read­ing this, you prob­a­bly have a dog in that fight and it is up to you, as well as every­one else in the field, to ensure that this com­pe­ti­tion ends up turn­ing each loca­tion into the best it can be.

Note: This post is part of a series of why New York may gain the top posi­tion in the tech world, dis­plac­ing Sil­i­con Val­ley. The whole series is now online: IntroCul­ture Part 1Cul­ture Part 2Tal­entAdver­sityBusi­ness. Please read the whole series before mak­ing snarky com­ments (once you have, you’re free to make those comments).

Originally published on January 8, 2011 in Business, Politics, Technology . You may find related thoughts pieces under the following terms: , ,

  • Pingback: Valley vs. New York: Culture — TNL.net

  • Pingback: Silicon Valley vs. New York: Talent — TNL.net

  • Pingback: Silicon Valley vs. New York: Adversity — TNL.net

  • Pingback: Silicon Valley vs. New York: Business — TNL.net

  • Com­menter

    Ten min­utes dri­ving around Sil­i­con Val­ley or San Francisco’s SOMA should be enough to con­vince any­one that the author is hope­lessly wrong.

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      Actu­ally, the last time I was in the Val­ley (back in Novem­ber), I was sur­prised by how neg­a­tive the mood was.

      How­ever, 10 min­utes read­ing all the points I’m mak­ing in details in the related entries might change your mind :)

      • Fakir

        You com­pletely ignore what makes the Val­ley work as startup cen­tral, and then pro­pose bull­shit as game chang­ers. Car-driven soci­eties aren’t social? really? That’s the best you have?

        NYC will dis­place Sil­i­con Val­ley when two things happen:

        1) It gets top-notch tech uni­ver­si­ties. Boston has a bet­ter startup scene than NYC, and for good reason.

        2) Rent isn’t retarded. When you’re build­ing a com­pany with 25k to last you 6 months, it’s much eas­ier to do so when rent doesn’t eat all of it.

      • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

        I fully agree with your points in terms of the longer trends. The first one is an essen­tial com­po­nent and that is some­thing I cov­ered in the entry on tal­ent.

        I’m not sure about the sec­ond point. Rent in the val­ley is not cheap (I’m not going to argue that rent in New York is) so I sus­pect that if you were to look, it’s become a non-factor. Rent in both areas is expen­sive and that seems to be part of the price of entry.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Raj-Kumar-Dash/617328091 Raj Kumar Dash

        It isn’t cheap here in Sil­i­con Val­ley but it’s not absurd like in New York. The woman that cut my hair told me how her son, the exec­u­tive sous chef at a famous tav­ern in New York, was spend­ing $2200 /month for a STUDIO apart­ment that he had to share. That’s nuts.

        Other fac­tors: Every­one out here seems pretty “chill” here com­pared to NYC (I’m orig­i­nally from Toronto). I have a ton of fam­ily friends who love liv­ing in NYC but per­son­ally, I have no desire to have to share an apart­ment with any­one. ALL of these friends are sin­gle, by the way. Hard to have a social life when you share small, expen­sive liv­ing quarters.

        As a long-time techie, I really don’t see NYC dis­plac­ing SV. I’ve only been here just under 2 years and I can feel the dif­fer­ence in atti­tudes down here. Entre­pre­neur­ial spirit seems part of the air here.

      • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

        Raj,

        I’ll grant you to rents are high in man­hat­tan but New York has 5 bor­oughs the last time I checked and it seemed that a lot of the peo­ple who are cur­rently doing inter­est­ing things in New York live in those outer bor­oughs (explain­ing why DUMBO in Brook­lyn is mov­ing up as a tech neigh­bor­hood). Rents in those bor­oughs are not as high as they are in Manhattan.

        I’m not sure about the “chill” fac­tor. I guess that’s some­thing that comes down to per­sonal pref­er­ence. As a long-time New Yorker, I tend to pre­fer some of the inten­sity of New Yorker but I think that’s nei­ther here nor there in terms of the long term suc­cess of New York as a tech center.

        Entre­pre­neur­ial spirit is part of the air in the val­ley because it is a mono­cul­ture based on tech­nol­ogy and that goes to the core of my argu­ment: the next gen­er­a­tion needs influ­ences OUTSIDE of tech in order to be suc­cess­ful and that’s why New York may have an advantage.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Alex-Buran/100001649621716 Alex Buran

        I live in NYC for the last 10 years so I am tech­ni­cally a native New Yorker. I saw a lot of change in those years. Pri­mary change occurred in 2008 when Lehman Broth­ers col­lapsed. NYC began to quickly lose the sta­tus of a finan­cial cen­ter, so the busi­ness began mov­ing now into the new tech direction.

        I see such sub­urbs as Brook­lyn and Long Island are des­tined to emerge in the next 10 years as main tech hubs. There is a great high speed Inter­net infra­struc­ture, wire­less cov­er­age and cost of liv­ing is lower. Although I work in Man­hat­tan for the last 3 years, I don’t know any­one who is actu­ally rent­ing apart­ments in Man­hat­tan. Every­one com­mutes from Brook­lyn, Queens or Bronx. Man­hat­tan itself is not liv­able. It’s a city of ghosts: unbe­liev­able rents, tourists, stu­dents, extra rich for­eign­ers who buy sec­ond homes, or sub­si­dized eth­nic­i­ties that are not inter­ested to work for any­one. So, in terms of sub­urbs, yes, I would agree with the author. They have a big shot.

        As to the col­leges, Brook­lyn Col­lege is a great tech com­mu­nity. It took a major leap for­ward in 2003 when its facil­i­ties and library were brought up to mod­ern stan­dards. Now it pro­duces very capa­ble engineers.

        Plus, the rate of smart phone adop­tion is very high. Peo­ple use Foursquare to check-into places like crazy.

        In addi­tion, NYC is very rev­enue dri­ven city. There are very few start-ups who attract money for the sake of spend­ing it. Every­one looks at the bot­tom line: what is your prod­uct, who is going to buy it, how soon you will make money back, etc. It’s not like tech bub­ble. It’s sane.

        NYC is a way to go, man!

      • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

        I sus­pect NYC los­ing its sta­tus as the cen­tral town in finance actu­ally pre-dates 2008 but that’s just a detail.

        If you take into account an area the same size as the val­ley, we’re talk­ing about roughly Stan­ford, CT to Prince­ton, NJ. So there’s a lot to grab from. I think the last few years, there has been an increase in the num­ber of out­stand­ing engi­neers com­ing out of local schools but I have to admit that that is still an area where the Val­ley has an advan­tage. That’s an area where we still have some catch­ing up to do.

        There are a num­ber of new hubs around Brook­lyn and other places also pick­ing up, as you rightly point out, but I would hardly call them suburbs.

        NYC all the way!

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Shame you’re hid­ing behind a rather sopho­moric handle.

    There are indeed bil­lions if not more at stake but if NYC is only a finance town to you, you haven’t paid atten­tion. Yes, the finan­cial sec­tor will con­tinue to be strong in New York and I sus­pect the media sec­tor and other areas where NYC is dom­i­nant will con­tinue on their cur­rent course with­out any issue.

    What is dif­fer­ent is that the web is now more social and social inno­va­tion is some­thing that, his­tor­i­cally, has always favored cities over sub­urbs. Many will say SF will take care of that but I would counter-argue that the best def­i­n­i­tion of a city is a place where one can live with­out a car (due to heavy invest­ment in pub­lic trans­porta­tion or car-alternatives). The val­ley (and many claim SF is not really part of the val­ley — as I’ve dis­cov­ered recently) is gen­er­ally con­sid­ered to be the lower bay and the lower bay, as far as I see it, is more of a set of sub­urbs and busi­ness parks.

    Even if you were to include SF in the Val­ley range, you have to real­ize that some of the major social play­ers (Face­book, Foursquare, Flickr, GroupOn) were born out­side the val­ley and that doesn’t seem to be a trend that’s stopping.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    I fully agree with your point about the need for more in-the-flesh tech­nol­o­gists but that advan­tage seems to be dis­ap­pear­ing in the val­ley as a result of the way for tal­ent (see the sub-entry on tal­ent in the series to see why that matters).

    BTW, how are Google and Face­book doing? Oh, that’s right, they’re build­ing big­ger offices in New York.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Dave,

    I agree that it is off in terms of time­line. It’s not some­thing that will hap­pen this year but I would ven­ture that it has a strong chance of hap­pen­ing in the next decade.

    I’d love to hear more about why you think Bei­jing is the place you’re bet­ting on in terms of dis­place­ment (I per­son­ally see Honk Kong or Shangai as the more likely emer­gent play­ers in China).

    • http://disqus.com Peter

      Per­haps when NY pro­duces a Stan­ford or Berke­ley engi­neer­ing pro­gram, or per­haps pro­duces an HP, Intel, Cisco, Yahoo, Google or Ora­cle, all startup fac­to­ries in their own right, or per­haps when Face­book relo­cates to NYC, or per­haps when Sand Hill Road changes it’s zip code, then per­haps NY might have a prayer of some­day dis­plac­ing Sil­i­con Valley.

      • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

        I fully agree that the cre­ation of a Stan­ford or Berkeley-like engi­neer­ing pro­gram will be a step to that dis­place­ment but I sus­pect that we are not too far away from that.

        As far as relo­ca­tion, I doubt that’s impor­tant. The com­pa­nies you cite are all com­pa­nies that are tied to the cur­rent model.

        What I am try­ing to point out (and where I think peo­ple miss the nuance because they haven’t read the linked sto­ries) is that the his­tor­i­cal advan­tages that helped cre­ate and sus­tain the val­ley for sev­eral gen­er­a­tion are erod­ing. As such, I think NY not only has a chance but its chance is increas­ing because of the envi­ron­men­tal con­di­tions (increas­ingly as hard for startup to recruit engi­neer­ing in the val­ley as it is in New York; or the move to social, which the val­ley is strug­gling with).

    • Brid­gette

      Ha Ha Ha .… You’re insane. I lived in NY for 10 years and after just spend­ing 2 years in Palo Alto, I am thor­oughly con­vinced that I wasted good 10 years of my life in NYC. Where do I start — Oh… How about WEATHER WEATHER WEATHER … ON *any* given day, I can go swim­ming and play ten­nis OUTDOORS! I never *ever* check to see what the weather is like before mak­ing plans. In NYC, you’re essen­tially stuck inside 9 months out of the year. It is sim­ply depress­ing. But if you like being stuck indoors and get­ting drunk in bars to for­get about the hor­rific con­di­tions you live under … and claim that you’re happy because you’re drunk … well, I guess NYC is for you.

      God… just think­ing about those hor­rific 10 years of intol­er­a­ble humid­ity and intol­er­a­ble bliz­zards is mak­ing me sick … btw — Foursquare — founded in NYC — is open­ing up shop in … gues where? Sil­i­con Val­ley :=) http://www.executiveofficespace.net/news/foursquare-takes-up-office-space-in-san-francisco-silicon-valley-826

      They had no choice. If you want to move ahead, you have to go to Sil­i­con Val­ley. Even Groupon is open­ing up shop in Palot Alto.

      • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

        Weather is nice but it’s hardly a gage for suc­cess (if it were, more star­tups would be located in the car­ribeans, for example.

        As far as open­ing up sec­ondary office, it’s true that Foursquare decided to go and get some engi­neers from the Val­ley. But, by com­par­i­son, Google bought a huge build­ing in New York, and Stan­ford wants to open a cam­pus in New York. Are they hedg­ing their bets? (oh, and for the record, Groupon has had an office in New York for a year too, as does Twitter)

  • Tim Case

    New York’s cul­ture is all about finance that once was and will never be again. New York was great once, but it’s over, it’s glory is sealed for his­tory. Because you are good at one thing does not mean you are good at another, and New York will never be a tech cap­i­tal. São Paulo however…

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      I’d sus­pect that there’s more to New York than you can gather. Yes, finance has been a part of it but New York’s main suc­cess, his­tor­i­cally, has been in its abil­ity to rein­vent itself.

  • Chris­t­ian

    News Flash: The Moon to dis­place the Sun.

    I have wrote 6 arti­cles of why this is… mainly tho it is because we do not live in space ships.

    I think its great you are writ­ing… but it may be best to spend time on things with actual mean­ing. AKA not viral titles with a com­pletely opin­ion­ated ideas.

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      OK, I’ll bite. What are your log­i­cal argu­ments for your con­tention that the moon will dis­place the sun?

      Maybe you ought to read the under­ly­ing arti­cles before you so thor­oughly reject them with non-sense.

  • Why Face­book Left Coast

    Resur­gence? New York was NEVER a tech center.

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      Never? Where was elec­tric­ity fist imple­mented? How about where was the first mobile phone tested? How about the first movies in the United States.

      Those are kind of basic techs that first made their way in New York.

      I’m sure tele­vi­sion and radio don’t count either in your view.

      In your view, com­pa­nies like Meetup and Foursquare also came out of a non-tech center.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Yes, I know Dave (both online and offline). He’s a super smart and some­times brash guy who sees the val­ley as the epi­cen­ter of tech­nol­ogy so I’m not sur­prised he’s defend­ing his ter­ri­tory. The fact that he’s invest­ing out­side of the val­ley could be seen as a telling sign (5 years ago, few valley-based VCs would invest in New York).

    I’ll grant you that New York still has a sub­stan­tial deficit in terms of devel­op­ers but where I see it even­tu­ally reach­ing par­ity with the val­ley is that New York has always had that deficit and is used to deal­ing with that con­straint. The val­ley has sel­dom has it but, with Google and Face­book suck­ing up tal­ent left and right, that con­straint may start aris­ing and that restores par­ity between the two mar­kets. So long term, I sus­pect that the cur­rent advan­tage of the val­ley over NYC may not be that strong (see the post on tal­ent wars for more details on this).

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Actu­ally, Google is hir­ing devel­op­ers left and right in NYC. Google gog­gles, for exam­ple, is run out of the NYC office. The Google team also has large devel­op­ment groups around apps, maps, and search qual­ity. Their rea­son­ing is that tal­ent is get­ting hard to acquire in the val­ley so they’re expand­ing to other areas.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Thanks for the rec­om­men­da­tion. Didn’t know about it and will def­i­nitely go and read it.

  • Anony­mous

    Where are the hard­ware ven­dors? What are the NY par­al­lels to HP, Apple, Ora­cle and Intel? I don’t see any­thing like that com­ing out of NY any­time soon.

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      Actu­ally, I’ll grant you that the hard­ware ven­dors will stay in the val­ley (at least those that don’t end up mov­ing to cheaper pro­duc­tion cen­ters like China). The lens I go through is that of web-based software.

      So I believe that the val­ley will con­tinue its influ­ence in hard­ware design (a few New York based com­pa­nies like Maker­bot and buglabs exist but they are more of an anom­aly) but my view is that the advan­tages the val­ley has for web-based soft­ware is shrink­ing and THAT is the area where I see New York even­tu­ally top­pling the val­ley for the top spot (albeit only tem­porar­ily as some non-US entity will prob­a­bly top­ple the win­ner of that fight within a generation).

  • skep­ti­cal

    So, to sim­plify the argu­ment in this arti­cle, I think you’re say­ing new york will replace sv because the whole indus­try will be social soft­ware and new york is a more social environment.

    No.

    • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

      That’s an over-simplification. To sim­plify the argument:

      - The pen­du­lum has swung in the direc­tion of lever­ag­ing tech­nol­ogy in non-technology busi­ness sec­tors. New York has an advan­tage there.
      – A sub­stan­tial por­tion of the new soft­ware is based on social com­po­nents. Cities in gen­eral and New York specif­i­cally has an advan­tage there.
      – SV used to have an advan­tage in terms of pro­vid­ing tal­ent. How­ever, the cur­rent tal­ent war between Face­book, Google, and other large play­ers is low­er­ing that advan­tage as far as star­tups are con­cerned. Scarcity of devel­op­ment resources is increas­ing in the val­ley. NY’s advan­tage here is merely that startup con­sider that nor­mal, instead of being shell­shocked by it.
      – Adver­sity is built in to the New York ecosys­tem and New York­ers tend to look at ways to co-opt adverse sit­u­a­tion instead of remov­ing them alto­gether. When it comes to mobile devel­op­ment, adver­sity is part of the ecosys­tem on a global basis (lit­tle band­width, dead spots) so New York­ers are get­ting and advan­tage there because of their mind­set.
      – New York’s obses­sion with money means startup look to build sus­tain­able busi­nesses in order to be taken seri­ously. In the val­ley, exits through M&A are con­sid­ered part of the busi­ness model, some­thing that may not be sus­tain­able over the longer run.

      So because of that sum­mary, I think the con­di­tions are get­ting ripe for New York to make a go of it.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    1. It is true that the con­di­tions are not there, which is why I haven’t called the arti­cle “NY IS dis­plac­ing SV”. How­ever, the fact that efforts are now under way to cre­ate the edu­ca­tional base is another com­po­nent in the longer trend.

    2. OK, I’ll grant you that one. Should I have called it “Tri-state area to dis­place Sil­i­con Val­ley”. Or should I have called it “New York to dis­place Moun­tain View”?

    3. Once again, true that those advan­tages exist and the dis­place­ment hasn’t hap­pened yet. How­ever, the piece is pro­ject­ing that it will hap­pen, not reflect­ing that it has.

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    I guess we’ll know what those odds truly are on the 16th :)

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    Good point.

  • Pingback: “Silicon Valley” Turns 40 – Do We Need it? | SiliconANGLE

  • http://www.tnl.net Tris­tan Louis

    I guess I’ll take those odds…